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Over the last half-a-dozen to a dozen years, predictions for significant weather events always seem to oversell. Way oversell. Every upcoming rain might be a flood and every snowstorm a blizzard. A bit of strong wind was surely a bomb cyclone.
Heck, the exaggerated doom and gloom probably was the norm for even longer than that.
This year (i.e. late Fall 2022 to now), however, the opposite seems to be the case. Weather is substantially undersold, with the effect that periods that have been forecast for nothing much to happen wind up surprising with sudden disruptions.
Take my area, yesterday, as a anecdotal example.
About a week ago, the medium-term weather prognostication went something like this… They anticipated a few inches of snow at the end of last week. This would be followed by, this week, a stretch of milder temperatures along with some rain. In terms of my planning, it all seemed something that I could safely ignore. Any snow-related disruption surely would be minor and fleeting.
What we got, instead, was a pair of snow storms totaling more than two feet of accumulation. The latest weather report now says we should expect third storm starting tomorrow.
How could they get it so wrong?
I’ll grant that, when it comes to this time of the year, the difference between 28°F and 34°F is probably a rounding error in the weather models but night-and-day in terms of impact. It may be that, normally, I’m not living right on the frost line and all I’m seeing is the result of temperatures hovering right around freezing. But could it be something else?
I know that, for myself, I’ve developed a sort of weatherman fatigue. A week’s worth of dramatic forecasts, hyping up a coming storm, won’t really hold my attention. “It might snow,” I think, “maybe a little and maybe a lot.” I know what I want to know and don’t seek out the latest update. Underselling might be a way to draw more and more frequent attention. If that upcoming minor rain might turn into a foot of snow from one day to another, I’m more likely to check back and do so often.
It’s all about the views these days, isn’t it? It’s possible that we are seeing the results of some sort of A/B testing and optimization – although I’m not sure I believe this the most likely explanation. It may even be that so many of us now have weatherman fatigue, and enough have complained, that this is an attempt to give the customer what they want. Hmm… probably even less likely. Paid advertising trumps customer satisfaction when the two fall out of alignment.
I have another suspicion, far more conspiratorial.
Is it possible that someone is trying to drive a message? Think about this. If you’re told you’re about to get 2-3 feet of snow, maybe more, and receiving constant warnings about how dangerous this might be and how unprecedented such storms are, a foot-and-a-half reality reminds you that the weather isn’t as bad as they say. If the news show predicts a seasonal storm and then you get one (plus or minus), it’s just winter as usual. However, if they say you might get a little rain and get a whopping two feet of snow instead, well – that’s a big deal, don’t you think?
It might make you conclude, “oh boy… we didn’t used to get these surprise storms blowing up out of nowhere.” You might wonder if the climate has taken a turn for the worse – colder, hotter, wetter, drier – whichever (or maybe all of them). Maybe the “unpredictability” is a sign that the entire planet is tumbling into chaos.
And maybe it is… except that these “predictions” themselves are not a climate phenomenon, they’re a human phenomenon. Estimates made and relayed by humans who might be trying to manipulate us (almost certainly – its all about the views) or might be pretending to know more than they do (again, almost certainly) or just maybe might not be all that good at what they do (all too common in so many professions these days).
So who has changed? Is it the weatherman, the weather, or just me? Am I simply imaging patterns out of random events and using it to fuel my preconceived notions?
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